"La Inducción sin abducción es ciega, la abducción sin inducción es vacía" "Jugar al juego por el bien del juego"

viernes, 3 de febrero de 2012


(The Career Analyst Program (CAP) Teaches These Principles)

  1. Intellectual rigor
    • Judgments are supported by facts or credible reporting
    • All sources are reviewed and evaluate for consistency, credibility
    • Uncertainties or gaps in information are made explicit

  1. Conscious effort to avoid analytical biases
·         State working assumptions and conclusions drawn from them explicitly
·         Subject assumptions and conclusions to structured chanllenge: what developments would indicate they would be wrong
·         If uncertainties or the stakes of being wrong are high, identify alternative outcomes and what it would take for each to ocurr

  1. Willingness to consider other judgments
·         Recognize the limits to your own expertise and avoid treating your account as yours alone
·         Seek out expertise that will complement your own as a product is being prepared.
·         Strong differences of view should be made explicit.

  1. Collective responsibility for judgment
·         Seek out and allow time for formal coordination of your product
·         Represent and defend all Agency and DI views
·         Make it clear when your express individual views; do so only when asked

  1. Precision of Language
·         Provide your most unique or new insight or fact quickly
·         Use active voice and short sentences; avoid excessive detail; minimize the use of technical terms. Follow DI writing guidelines
·         Shorted is allways better.

  1. Systematic use of outside experts as a check on in-house blinders
·         Seek out new external studies and experts relevant to your account and discipline on a continuing basis
·         Keep up with news media treatment of your account and consider whether their perspective offers unique insight
·         On key issues, indicate where outsiders agree or disagree with your judgments

  1. Candid admission of shortcomings and learning from mistakes
·         Recognize that intelligence analysis will sometimes be wrong because it must focus on the tough questions or uncertainties
·         Review periodically past judgments or interpretations; what made them right or wrong; how could they have been better
·         Alert the policymaker if you determine that a previous line of analysis was wrong. Explain why and what it means
  1. Attentiveness to and focus on policymaker concerns
·         Deliver intelligence that is focused on and timed to the policymaker´s current agenda
·         Make clear the implications of your analysis
·         Provide “actionable” intelligence that can help the policymaker handle a threat, make a decision or achieve an objective

  1. Never pursue a policy agenda
·         Personal policy preferences must not shape the information presented or the conclusions of intelligence analysis
·         Politely but clearly deflect policymaker request for recommendations on policy
·         Intelligence helps the policymaker by reducing the range of uncentainty and risk, and by identifying opportunities for action. It does not make the choice for him.

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